Tag Archives: krugman

Greece a Year or Two after Exiting the Euro

Just a quick thought, but what happens if Greece leaves the Euro and then a year or two after, things start improving rapidly.  What would be the reactions of the other Euro peripheral countries like Spain and Italy.

Would the electorates there go further to the non-austerity parties if things have not improved?


If this system can’t support a living wage…

There has been some comment recently about what is called “inequality”.

Notably here, here, here and here.

But it was this article from Yahoo Finance, about fair pay, that caught my attention.  Now I could go on and on about the leverage capital has on of wages of the working class, especially in a depression, or the 3 to 1 ratio of applicants to job openings, but that wouldn’t  be my gut reaction.

People who work hard should get a living wage.  If even our hybrid capitalist system can’t offer this basic necessity to a huge amount of the people, then we should do some long and hard thinking.

I don’t think conservatives realize that the policies they are pushing, the one’s that cater to the 1%, don’t exactly line up with the ability to hold power in a representational democracy.  As Paul Krugman recently pointed out, people are realizing the extent of the skewed distribution of income.  This can’t be good for national polling for republicans.  I mean losing 4 of the last 5 popular votes should be some kind of sign.

Clear up the Debt Overhang in Housing

Brad Delong has a great post:

More Jobs and Higher Middle Class Incomes as Economic Policy Job #1: Housing Policy Edition

Years late and terabucks short blogging…

Four years ago, Obama pivoted to the Axelrod-Geithner line that the decline had stopped, economic recovery was on the way and could handle itself, and that economic policy job #1 was stabilizing the long-term finances of the federal government.

Now, after four largely wasted years spent mostly talking about the deficit, he may be pivoting back:

“I want to make sure that all of us in Washington are investing as much time, as much energy, as much debate on how we grow the economy and grow the middle class as we’ve spent over the last two to three years arguing about how we reduce the deficits”, Mr. Obama said. He called for a shift “away from what I think has been a damaging framework in Washington.”

This is most welcome. Let us hope that it is indeed permanent.

Now the first step is to strike a deal to get the Republicans in the Senate to confirm Mel Watt as head of FHFA, and then for FHFA and the GSEs to offer a conforming loan-rate refi (with equity kickers attached for those underwater) to every mortgage holder in America. That policy to clean out the credit-channel mess created by the housing finance disaster and housing bubble crash of 2004-2008 would have been good policy in 2009. It would have been good policy in 2010. It would have been good policy in 2011. It would have been good policy in 2012. And it would be good policy today.


Krugman and China (a timing issue)

I like Paul Krugman, I think he is very good, but i think he has set himself up here as regards to China.  Ok, he says its (China) is riding a bicycle into a brick wall, but when does this implosion happen? 

And by reading his articles I feel like he’s saying “ok next month China is Dooomed!”, when I think he means to say that over the next 4 years we could see a decline of China growth by 3 percentage points from where it is now (Its 7.5% now).

Having worked China deals since the mid 2000’s, knowing how China works (as Krugman states in his article) is incredibly complex.  When he says China’s econ stats are a little science fictiony, he ain’t lying.

But the ability of a populace to take extreme hardships before doing something about it (see Europe) is pretty vast.

So no matter how much “rebalancing” takes place, I don’t see a hard landing for China.

Job Growth and the Concerted Republican Effort to Hobble the Economy

The jobs report yesterday is the talk of the punditverse.  The basic take away was “the job growth was poor and there was a large amount of people who dropped out of the labor force.  This is bad for Obama.”

While the news media was making a lot of noise about it, I think its not so bad for Obama.  The general populace seems to accept that its not his fault.  They keep putting out that no president, except FDR, has been re-elected with this level of unemployment.  Yes, that’s right, but which president’s situation was similar?  Well  that would be FDR.

My problem is that the news media is not picking up on the concerted effort by repulicans to hobble the economy.  They are blocking the JOBS PLAN that President Obama has put forward.  They are primarily responsible for the majority of GOVERNMENT JOB LOSSES.  And despite the effort the JOBS GROWTH has been better than the previous republican administration.

The jobs report was a perfect example.  Positive 103k jobs added in the private economy and 7k LOST from government jobs.

Where is the news media pushing these points?  I simply cannot believe that this deceitful republican strategy is succeeding to a certain degree.  If it does suceed, what does that say for the future of America?

Great Blog Post: Krugman & Taxes

I first read Paul Krugman as a grad student at Temple University. I was working on international monetary economcis and I read a lot of his work. Not only was it some of the most precient and superior analysis I had come across, but also some of the most well written. This was 7 years before he was hired by the New York Times to write a column.

Without a doubt, he is one of the best economists on the planet and one of the very, very few people I often read.

Here’s a recent post on taxes:


Krugman on Recent ECB Rate Cut

Paul Krugman recently blogged about the recent ECB (inadequate) rate cut (link below).  Basically, keeping Europe on a course to overall recession (or stagnation) keeps downside risk for equities high and bonds postive (BND and NLY IMHO).  The day ECB says they are the lender of last resort (if ever), markets rock.

Krugman blog:  http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/ecb-death-wish/