Tag Archives: gdp

Krugman and China (a timing issue)

I like Paul Krugman, I think he is very good, but i think he has set himself up here as regards to China.  Ok, he says its (China) is riding a bicycle into a brick wall, but when does this implosion happen? 

And by reading his articles I feel like he’s saying “ok next month China is Dooomed!”, when I think he means to say that over the next 4 years we could see a decline of China growth by 3 percentage points from where it is now (Its 7.5% now).

Having worked China deals since the mid 2000’s, knowing how China works (as Krugman states in his article) is incredibly complex.  When he says China’s econ stats are a little science fictiony, he ain’t lying.

But the ability of a populace to take extreme hardships before doing something about it (see Europe) is pretty vast.

So no matter how much “rebalancing” takes place, I don’t see a hard landing for China.

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